venerdì 11 marzo 2011

1911-2011: a new Libyan War

What a strange coincidence! Just 100 years ago, a war between Italy and the Ottoman Empire occurred, driving to the italian colonial occupation of Libya.

In these last weeks, after the riots in Libya, the possibility of a military intervention (or however a "strong" initiative) by Nato or EU (with or without the UN decision) is under way.

Humanitarian reasons? Pushes towards democracy in Libya? The decision to put to an end an authoritarian regime? Absolutely not! The reason is always the same: control over oil resources in Libya.

World economy, it's rather boring to repeat always the same things, is based on cheap oil: any factor capable to alter this rule causes economic as well as political tensions.

Libya is a relevant oil producer: it has been controlled for decades by an authoritarian regime which, thanks to oil resources, has gained an immense richness while common people have suffered huge poverty. Al this has generated a pure resentment at the base of the present riots. These riots are implying a severe drop in libyan oil production with relevant impacts on oil prices as well as on the economic growth of the great industrial countries.

This is the usual cul-de-sac of "growth" based on oil. It is difficult to imagine that these countries, and above all the great corporations, dealing with this crisis will remain quiet.

There are no humanitarian reasons: this oil thrist could drive to a new libyan war. I think it's not just a mere hypotesis: it's something more, it's a real threat. In this case, Ghaddafi's fate is already written and any other future political regime will be forced to cope with the appetites of the oil economy. The Arab world as a whole seems to be extremely vulnerable to these pressures which, when the oil economy will require more and more oil, will become even harder.

It is thus important to understand that renewable energies are not only an environmental but also a political option. This is the sole option we have today also considering that, being uranium very scarce, nuclear energy hase huge costs and material limits.

Oil economy won't last forever and its agony could have dramatic implications. Where we are going to?

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